China's population has plunged for the second consecutive year, witnessing a staggering drop of 2.08 million in 2023, representing a 0.15% decline.
The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed a shocking record-low birth rate at 6.39 births per 1,000 people, coupled with a stark increase in total deaths, soaring by 6.6% to reach 11.1 million. The aftermath of stringent COVID-19 lockdowns and the lingering impact of China's notorious one-child policy from 1980 to 2015 are seen as primary culprits.
Experts are sounding alarms over sustained low fertility rates exceeding 30 years, projecting a prolonged era of population decline unless the government swiftly intervenes. Despite government incentives, exorbitant costs of housing, living, and education, alongside shifting societal norms like delayed marriages and declining marriage rates, have thwarted attempts to boost birth rates.
Economically, China grapples with a dwindling labor force and an alarming aging population. The old dependent ratio, gauging the burden on the working-age population to support the elderly, poses severe economic strains. Concerns abound that low-margin manufacturing may flee China's shores, gravitating towards countries like India and Vietnam, while China clings to a role in high-tech manufacturing.
With China relinquishing its title as the world's most populous nation to India, geopolitical dynamics add another layer of complexity. The repercussions of these demographic upheavals raise profound questions about China's future growth trajectory and its standing in the global economic arena.