The Pakistan government has faced a rising wave of violence since the 2021 takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, especially in the northwest of the country. The bulk of the militant attacks have taken place in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with nearly 800 attacks in 2023 alone, leading to over 1,500 killed and as many injured.
What are the sources of militant violence in Pakistan?
Most of the violence has been carried out by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Two newer groups, the Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) and Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) have also claimed responsibility for a number of attacks on security forces and law enforcement.
The upswing in violence began when the TTP, responsible for carrying out the 2014 Peshawar school massacre, unilaterally announced the end of a ceasefire with the Pakistan government towards the end of 2022, supposedly in retaliation for military operations in the northwest of the country.
What is the new operation?
Called Azm-e-Istehkam (Urdu for determined for stability), the operation was launched during a meeting of the Central Apex Committee on the National Action Plan chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
The National Action Plan was a set of steps the government resolved to take to eradicate terrorism and militant violence in the wake of the TTP attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar.
Pakistan has also come under pressure from China, with Chinese officials citing poor security as the key threat to the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Chinese nationals and workers have recently been targeted in a wave of militant attacks.
What will the operation entail?
Even though the operation was initially announced as involving a full-blown kinetic push from the armed forces acting in concert with law enforcement, the government later watered down its statement, stating that the operation would not be a large-scale kinetic military operation and would not entail the mass displacement of local populations.
On Tuesday, June 25, the Prime Minister’s Office clarified that the operation would involve an intensification of already ongoing intelligence operations (IBOs), and that a new and organized military kinetic offensive would not be part of the operation.
“Azm-e-Istehkam is a multi-domain, multi-agency, whole-of-the-system national vision for enduring stability in Pakistan. It is meant to reinvigorate and re-energise the ongoing implementation of Revised National Action Plan, which was initiated after the consensus across the political spectrum,” a pres release from the Prime Minister’s Office claimed.
Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that the government sought to have national consensus on the matter, and would be willing to take the PTI, JUI-F and ANP’s reservations into consideration. The federal minister reiterated that the operation’s only intent was to root out the resurgent wave of militant violence and terrorism from the country.
What has been the response to the announcement of the operation?
The government has been heavily criticized by opposition parties for initiating the operation without consultations with Parliament. The PTI, JUI-F and ANP have been vocal with their denouncement of the operation, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s chief minister Ali Amin Gandapur claiming that he was not briefed about the operation.
JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman suggested in a press conference that the operation would bring about even more instability.
Despite citing reservations, the PML-N’s coalition partner, the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) has lent its support for the operation.
Is this operation the first of its kind?
Not exactly. Azm-e-Istehkam is only the latest in a rather long line of counterterrorism operations undertaken by the armed forces. Zarb-e-Azb was launched after the TTP’s 2014 Peshawar school massacre, and Raddul Fasaad was initiated under General Qamar Javed Bajwa in 2017 to root out “residual terrorist threats.” Both those operations have been criticized for causing widespread internal displacement and human rights abuses, including but not limited to enforced disappearances.
Despite lofty claims of these past operations’ successes, the recent spate of violence gripping the western provinces is sufficient evidence that while there might have been some tactical successes, these operations did not bring about a complete end to militancy in the country.
What will determine the operation’s success?
Key to the success of Pakistan’s new operation will be how the relationship with Afghanistan is managed. The TTP and ISKP have sanctuaries across the border in Afghanistan, and it is yet unclear if the Taliban regime has guaranteed any support or assistance in eradicating these militant training facilities and safe havens.
The prospect of cross-border operations also carries the risk of increased diplomatic tensions with Kabul, a regime ideologically aligned with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.
The logistical and equipment support provided to security forces and local law enforcement, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, will remain key focus areas. Law enforcement and security forces personnel have been the most frequent targets of the resurgence of violence.