Indian voters have the capacity to surprise. Sometimes they are silent, hesitant to speak up, or even afraid to do so. Some communities, particularly those that are not dominant, tend to keep their cards close to their chest, making it difficult to gauge their preferences. In Haryana, the Congress party was only 1 percentage point behind the BJP in terms of vote share, although the difference in seats was much greater. This close margin shows that mistakes can happen, and 1 percent is within the margin of error, noted Indian political commentator Shivam Vij.
While speaking at the program “Unraveled with Marvi Sirmed” on New Wave Global, Vij expressed his delight as a commentator when voters surprise us. He addressed questions regarding reports of infighting within the Congress party and its overreliance on the Jat community in Haryana. He pointed out that the media has made a mistake by not reaching out enough to various community groups, particularly the “Other Backward Classes” (OBCs), which include small peasants and farmers who have historically lacked a strong voice in Indian politics. However, their influence has been growing steadily over the past 30 years. This group is one that the BJP has successfully consolidated against the dominant Jats.
When discussing the BJP’s performance in Jammu and Kashmir, Vij noted that it was weaker than expected but not as poor as many had anticipated following the abrogation of Article 370. He explained that Jammu and Kashmir comprises two distinct regions: the Kashmir Valley and Jammu, which itself has two subdivisions—the Jammu Plains and the Jammu Hills. The Jammu Plains, being demographically more Hindu, have been favorable to the BJP, while the Muslim-majority Jammu Hills have not seen the same support for the party.
In response to a question about the BJP government’s reluctance to grant statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, Vij acknowledged that this situation will be challenging. This is the first time Jammu and Kashmir has been designated as a Union Territory with an assembly, and many new conventions will need to be established. He emphasized that while each Union Territory has its unique characteristics, the BJP has promised that Jammu and Kashmir will eventually regain statehood. He personally advocates for statehood for both Jammu and Kashmir and Delhi, arguing that governance in Delhi suffers due to its lack of statehood.
Finally, regarding the question of whether the BJP can replace Modi, Vij stated that he remains the party's best bet. The question of finding a suitable replacement only arises if another leader can match Modi's popularity. Although there is speculation about Yogi Adityanath, he is not nearly as popular as Modi.